Can you outline strategic assumption surfacing and testing for the power phase
Strategic Assumption Surfacing and Testing (SAST) is a methodology designed to tackle “ill-structured” problems—complex messes where the underlying definition of the problem is in dispute[1]. In the Power phase of systemic inquiry, SAST is used to manage the dialectic between multiple worldviews (Weltanschauungen) and to ensure that the “rightness” of a strategy is not simply enforced by “mightiness” or power[2][3]. It operates on the premise that the validity of any strategic plan depends less on the logic of the plan itself and more on the validity of the hidden assumptions underlying it[4].
Here is an outline of the SAST process for the power phase:
1. Group Formation (Maximizing Diversity)
The goal is to engineer “constructive conflict” by ensuring opposing perspectives are heard[4][5].
• Adversarial Grouping: Participants are separated into small, homogeneous groups to minimize interpersonal conflict within the group while maximizing differences between groups[6].
• Criteria for Grouping: Groups can be formed based on functional area (e.g., Marketing vs Finance), policy preference (e.g., Status Quo vs Radical Change), or personality type (e.g., using the Jungian framework to group “Sensing-Thinking” types against “Intuitive-Feeling” types)[7].
2. Stakeholder Analysis (Grounding Opinions)
To make abstract assumptions concrete, participants must identify the parties who affect or are affected by the problem[10].
• Assumptions as Stakeholder Properties: SAST defines assumptions as the “presumed properties of stakeholders”[10][11].
• The Logistical Search: Groups must list the “internal assassins,” hidden movers, victims, and beneficiaries involved in the decision[12].
3. Assumption Surfacing
Groups work backward from their preferred policy to identify the conditions that would have to be true for that policy to be the correct one[12].
• The Negation Test: To verify relevance, participants ask: “If the opposite of this assumption were true, would it have any significant bearing on the issue?”[13]. If not, the assumption is dropped[13].
4. Assumption Sorting (The Importance/Certainty Matrix)
Not all assumptions are equal risks. Each assumption is plotted on a 2x2 grid based on Importance and Certainty[11][14].
• The Danger Zone: The focus of the power phase is the High Importance / Low Certainty quadrant[14]. These are assumptions vital to the plan’s success that have no hard data to support them[14][15].
5. Dialectical Debate
Groups present their most critical assumptions to one another in a structured format[16].
• Exposing the “Takens”: The goal is for opposing groups to identify the “takens” (unwarranted assumptions) that the presenting group mistakenly views as “givens”[17].
• Truth through Opposition: Decision-makers witness the conflict between worldviews using the same set of data to synthesize a more comprehensive understanding[18][19].
6. Synthesis and Negotiation
Once conflicting assumptions are exposed, the dynamic shifts from adversarial to integrative[20].
• Assumption Negotiation: Groups identify which of their opponents’ assumptions are most troubling and attempt to modify their own beliefs to bridge the gap[20].
• Synergistic Recombination: Groups may be dissolved and reformed with members from opposing sides to create a new problem formulation that encompasses the revealed complexity[21].
Summary of Purpose
The ultimate goal of SAST in the power phase is to avoid the “Error of the Third Kind” (E3): solving the wrong problem precisely[22][23]. By forcing these hidden assumptions into the open, the methodology ensures the problem definition is broad enough to include the concerns of all key stakeholders rather than just a narrow technical puzzle[22].
Does your current situation involve stakeholders who seem to be “talking past each other” because of these kinds of deeply held, unstated assumptions?[9]
References
[1] 💬How To Guides.md [2] 💬Gists.md [3] 💬People Dynamics.md [4] 💬How To Guides.md [5] 💬People Dynamics.md [6] 💬People Dynamics.md [7] 💬How To Guides.md [9] 💬People Dynamics.md [10] 💬How To Guides.md [11] 💬Keywords + Jargon.md [12] 💬How To Guides.md [13] 💬How To Guides.md [14] 💬How To Guides.md [15] 💬People Dynamics.md [16] 💬How To Guides.md [17] 💬How To Guides.md [18] 💬Gists.md [19] 💬Perspectives.md [20] 💬People Dynamics.md [21] 💬People Dynamics.md [22] 💬How To Guides.md [23] 💬Nutshell (Process).md