The Contested Science
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How can the ideas and concepts in qset:all concatenated help address the issue of contested science around the cause of global warming
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The provided sources offer a systemic and epistemological toolkit to address the “contested science” of global warming. Rather than seeking a single “final truth” to end all debate, these approaches suggest that global warming is a “wicked problem” characterized by systemic causation and multiple legitimate realities.
The issue can be addressed through the following structural shifts:
1. Shift from Direct to Systemic Causation
A primary barrier to accepting climate science is the human brain’s natural bias toward Direct Causation (e.g., “The boy broke the window”). This frame struggles with Systemic Causation, where effects are indirect, diffuse, and delayed in time and space.
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The Approach: Reframe the debate from looking for a single “villain” to analyzing the Web of Causality.
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The Leverage: Focus on the feedback loops (e.g., melting ice reducing albedo, causing more warming) and time delays that make the system counterintuitive.
2. Move from “Consensus” to “Accommodation”
In complex human systems, total consensus on values is rare. Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) suggests that forcing a single “objective” view on global warming often triggers defensive reactions from those with different worldviews.
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The Strategy: Instead of demanding everyone believe the same “truth,” seek Accommodation—a version of the situation that different parties can “live with” to enable purposeful action.
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Double Description: Use Bateson’s “binocular vision” to combine scientific data with local, cultural, and economic perspectives to generate a higher-order “bonus of understanding”.
3. Apply the “Logic of Question and Answer”
Conflicts often arise because participants are answering different questions without realizing it.
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Interrogating the Question: Use the Collingwood/Wilk approach to reconstruct the questions skeptics are secretly asking (e.g., “Is my economic security at risk?” vs. “Is the CO2 increasing?”).
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Negative Explanation: Instead of just asking “What causes warming?”, ask “What prevents us from transitioning to a sustainable state?“. This identifies the local idiosyncratic constraints (e.g., legacy infrastructure, political myths) holding the current pattern in place.
4. Use Narratives to Bridge Models
Formal mathematical models of global warming often fail because they must be internally consistent, while the real world is full of contradictions.
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The Role of Narrative: Use Hierarchy Theory’s emphasis on narrative to bridge the gap between different scales (e.g., global temperature rise vs. local crop failure).
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Commensurate Experience: Foster “commensurate experience” among stakeholders through storytelling that accommodates contradictory identities, such as viewing someone simultaneously as an “economic actor” and a “biological organism”.
5. Management under Uncertainty
Complexity science suggests that in “Extremistan” (the domain of high-impact rare events), the cost of being wrong can be ruinous.
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Precautionary Principle: When dealing with systemic and irreversible risks like climate collapse, scientific near-certainty is required for action, and the burden of proof shifts to those claiming a new intervention is safe.
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Fragility over Prediction: Instead of debating the exact degree of future warming, focus on identifying and reducing the fragility of our current systems.
Summary Table for Addressing Contested Science
| Strategy | Concept | Practical Action |
|---|---|---|
| Reframing | Systemic Causation | Move from individual blame to system-wide structure. |
| Mediation | Accommodation | Find a workable “niche” for action despite differing values. |
| Logic | Negative Explanation | Identify what specifically prevents change in this local context. |
| Communication | Narrative | Bridge formal models with stories that stakeholders can agree on. |
| Ethics | Boundary Critique | Explicitly ask: “Whose interests are served by this definition of the problem?“. |